If Barack Obama does indeed win re-election in seven weeks
he will need to get busy right away penning Thank-You notes to those most
responsible for his victory. He should
start with the Republican primary voters, who chose an incredibly weak
candidate as their standard bearer.
Conditions were certainly favorable to unseat the incumbent—the economy
has spent four years trying to work up a head of steam without much
success. Normally, this would be enough
to force a sitting President out of office, (see: Carter, Jimmy and Bush,
George H.W.) All it would take would be
a marginally acceptable candidate, yet the Republican field was exceptionally
weak this year. President Bachman? President Gingrich? President Santorum? Compared to these utterly unqualified
strivers, Mitt Romney must have looked like the best option. He was the cream that rose slowly to the top
of a rancid bucket.
So I suppose some Thank Yous need to go to Jeb Bush, Chris
Christie, Mitch Daniels and other qualified Republicans who chose to sit out
this year. After each of the Republican
candidates spent a week or two as front-runner, Mitt cleared them out of the
way with millions of dollars of negative ads and then stepped into the
nomination with the numbers behind him, but not the passion of the base. The only Republican in the field who may have
actually been electable in the General Election was the other Mormon—John
Huntsman—and he dropped out early.
Another Thank You needs to go out to the Tea Party. With their “No Compromise, No Surrender”
attitude they certainly drove many middle-of-the-road voters toward Barack Obama. Tea Party extremism only served to show by
contrast how centrist Barack Obama’s policies really are. Most specifically, the Tea Party caucus inthe House of Representatives made President Obama look like the only adult in
the room compared to their childish antics.
Mitt may have had it right when he said that 47% of the voters were
going to stick with President Obama no matter what. The 5 to 10 percent of voters who were undecided were
ripe for the picking this year, but the Tea Party’s extremist rhetoric and refusal
to compromise drove many undecideds to stay home or to vote for the
incumbent.
The Senate Republicans also deserve a written Thank
You. Senator Mitch McConnell made itclear a few years ago that he saw his first job as making sure President Obamadid not get re-elected. (I don’t
remember that from the oath of office he took, but I must not have been
listening very carefully.) Again, in
contrast to the obstructionist Senate Republicans, President Obama looked like
an adult who was willing to compromise for the good of the country.
It is too soon to know who will be elected President on
November 6, 2012. I think Barack Obama
will win, and it might even be an Electoral College landslide. If so, some Presidential Thank Yous will be in
order. The Republicans, in their
obsession with unseating Barack Obama, may have instead pushed him over the top
and into a second term.